Kent Community Risk Register
Very high risks
The 'very high risks' outlined on this page are primary or critical risks requiring immediate attention. They may have a high or low likelihood of occurrence, but their potential consequences are such that they must be treated as a high priority.
This may mean that strategies should be developed to reduce or eliminate risks, but also that mitigation in the form of at least (multi-agency) generic planning, exercising and training should be put in place and the risk monitored on a regular frequency.
Consideration should be given to planning being specific to the risk rather than generic.
Failure of the National Electricity Transmission System (NETS)
This scenario involves a total failure of the national electricity transmission network lasting up to five days, with potential for some areas to remain without power for up to 14 days. Power stations require an amount of power to conduct the generation process. In the event of a full loss of power it would be necessary to manually restart many power stations using an external input of power. This is a well-rehearsed process; however, it would take some time to implement and restore full power generation to the UK.
Failure of gas supply infrastructure
During winter, a technical failure or accident causes significant loss of UK gas supplies. This is likely to result in fatalities and casualties from a lack of heating, access to necessary medical treatment, exacerbation of an existing condition, limited ability to use gas-fired cookers, or deaths that are otherwise brought forward.
Natural hazards
Low temperatures and snow
Planning for this risk is based upon the reasonable worst-case scenario of snow falling and lying over most of the county for at least seven days, with most lowland areas experiencing cover more than 30 centimetres with daily mean temperatures below 3°C.
Such a scenario may result in 'excess deaths' and cold weather-related illness and injury (predominantly in vulnerable groups such as older people and those with chronic health problems). There is also likely to be substantial disruption to transport networks, schools, and businesses.
This hazard would also be accompanied by icy conditions including the risk of road traffic collisions and hospital admissions due to slips, trips, and falls.
The ‘Big Freeze’ in 2018 had significant impacts on all residence within Kent and Medway, where frozen pipes resulted in the loss of drinking water. Heating water outlet pipes froze resulting is houses being with our heating whilst temperatures remained below freezing for days on end.
Major coastal and tidal flooding
This risk is based on the reasonable worst-case scenario of a tidal flood affecting multiple counties along the East Coast. National resources would need to be shared across counties. It is anticipated that there would be up to four days advanced warning of a potential event, with confidence in forecasts becoming greater closer to the event. Confirmation of anticipated flooding would be between 24 to eight hours before the event occurring.
This assessment considers a 'regional' event in which water flows create a danger to life. The depth and velocity of water flows can be variable depending on location and weather.
Pandemic
Infectious diseases can have a significant health impact, particularly on those with existing health conditions and can cause a strain on the health sector.
New pandemic viruses spread rapidly causing worldwide impacts. It generally occurs when a new strain emerges for which there is no current vaccination.
It is unlikely that a pandemic would originate in the UK, however due to the nature of international travel the UK will be at risk. The World Health Organisation maintains constant international surveillance to monitor and track any emerging outbreaks.
Loss of the strategic road network
The reasonable worst-case scenario will see all major, minor, and local roads becoming congested with traffic diverting to alternative routes. The ability for essential services, including blue light operations, health and social care provisions will be significantly impacted. Kent's strategic roads are M20 and M2, providing access to the ports.
KMRF work together with National Highways and local highways to ensure plans for managing traffic flow through the ports are tested and the infrastructure is suitable for ensuring that the county keeps moving during times of disruption and local community disruption is kept to a minimum.
Loss of Port - border closure/counter-terrorism/infrastructure
The loss of a port in Kent and Medway could be due to an infrastructure or transport failure, severe weather, a counter-terrorism incident, or a no-notice border closure.
This risk is the primary impact of the loss of the strategic road network, and the KRF has extensive plans in place to manage this risk.